国际贸易理论演化中的哲学逻辑和历史线索

本文对国际贸易理论演化中潜在的哲学逻辑和历史线索进行提炼和总结,借用＂道生一,一生二,二生三,三生万物＂的中国古代哲学思想来阐释经典国际贸易理论体系演化的内在哲学逻辑,并从推动理论发展的三大动因的角度来说明国际贸易理论演化的历史线索,试图探寻国际贸易理论发展中存在的潜在规律性,并在此基础上,对国际贸易理论今后的发展进行适当的展望。     

我国对外贸易与产业结构关系的实证研究

以对外贸易对一国产业结构的影响为分析对象，在对已有的理论进行阐述的基础上，分别从理论以及模型两方面对这一问题进行了定性分析，并根据我国的实际情况利用OLS进行了定量分析。从分析的结果中得出我国对外贸易对产业结构升级均有影响，并基于当前的国际环境，对我国的产业结构调整提出了一些建议。     

Internet user behaviour in France and Britain: exploring socio‐spatial disparity among adolescents

The Internet has radically transformed society – although its diffusion has been uneven. Various studies of digital inequality have been undertaken in Anglo‐Saxon communities. Few studies have investigated digital inequality from a socio‐spatial perspective (urban vs. suburban, rather than urban vs. rural) in a French setting. This absence underscores a gap in knowledge and methodology. It highlights the complexities of gathering comparable data on Internet user behaviour beyond national borders. This paper takes a multidisciplinary approach to investigate emerging trends in Internet use across different territories (inner‐city and suburban, as opposed to urban vs. rural) by means of in‐depth interviews with Internet users aged 13–15 years old in France and Britain. The aim is to provide a broad understanding of the way in which teenage Internet users behave online in different territories. The investigation reveals a number of converging trends that are common to both France and Britain and some unexpected disparity.     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

Influence of International Openness on Corporate Environmental Performance in China

This paper examines how international openness influences China's corporate environmental performance. A unique firm‐level dataset is constructed by combining two databases: the Annual Industrial Survey and the China GreenWatch Program Rating System. The empirical results obtained from a series of ordered probit models indicate that openness has a positive relation to corporate environmental performance in China. However, the two main market‐opening strategies in China, exporting and attracting foreign investment, have different effects on environmental performance. The results reveal that foreign investment plays a substantial and positive role that can support the environmental spillovers in China. However, the effect of exporting is insignificant. The environmental pressure from foreign customers to improve Chinese firms' environmental performance presents a challenge. Our study indicates that China could make environmental quality improvements through increased international openness, as is likely the case for other developing countries.     

Causality effects in return volatility measures with random times

We provide a structural approach to identify instantaneous causality effects between durations and stock price volatility. So far, in the literature, instantaneous causality effects have either been excluded or cannot be identified separately from Granger type causality effects. By giving explicit moment conditions for observed returns over (random) duration intervals, we are able to identify an instantaneous causality effect. The documented causality effect has significant impact on inference for tick-by-tick data. We find that instantaneous volatility forecasts for, e.g., IBM stock returns must be decreased by as much as 40% when not having seen the next quote change before its (conditionally) median time. Also, instantaneous volatilities are found to be much higher than indicated by standard volatility assessment procedures using tick-by-tick data. For IBM, a naive assessment of spot volatility based on observed returns between quote changes would only account for 60% of the actual volatility. For less liquidly traded stocks at NYSE this effect is even stronger.     

经贸文体翻译之生命——准确性

实现经贸文体翻译的准确性,必须准确把握词汇含义,理解文化内涵,表现文体风格。     

Bound by Gravity or Living in a ‘Post Geography Trading World’?* Expert Knowledge and Affective Spatial Imaginaries in the Construction of the UK’s Post-Brexit Trade Policy

A key battle has been fought within the UK cabinet on the direction of post-Brexit trade policy. The opposing sides have favoured either continued alignment or a ‘hard’ break with the European Union’s (EU’s) regulatory and customs regime, in the latter case to allow the UK to pursue an independent and ambitious trade policy agenda. Contrary to much commentary on ‘post-truth’ politics, both sides have relied on rival forms of expertise to support their claims. I argue for the need to not only re-emphasise the malleability and political nature of expert knowledge, but also appreciate its emotional bases. The Treasury has led the charge in favour of a softer Brexit by drawing on econometric (‘gravity’) models that emphasise the economic costs of looser association with the EU. In contrast to this attempt at technocratic legitimation, the specific legal expertise drawn upon by cabinet advocates of ‘hard’ Brexit has appealed to an emotive political economy of bringing the UK, and its (in this imaginary) overly regulated economy, closer to its ‘kith and kin’ in the Anglosphere, deepening the UK ‘national business model’. I conclude by calling for more explicitly emotive and values-based argumentation in the public debate on the UK’s future trade policy to improve the quality of democratic deliberation.     

When Overlapping Organisations Play Two-Level Games: IMF–EU Interaction in Credit Lending to Latvia and Greece

In the literature, the cooperation of the IMF and the EU in credit lending has been discussed either from a state-centric, bureaucratic or institutionalist perspective. In this article, we examine the Troika as a set-up of multiple organisational overlap providing bureaucratic agents with constraints and opportunities for strategic action. Taking Latvia and Greece as cases in point, we analyse who prevails in a situation of conflict and why. How do these international organisations manage to overcome their differences and reach consensus? Drawing on the Two-Level game approach, we argue that negotiators are more likely to prevail over each other when their respective win-set decreases. We find that different strategies to manipulate win-sets are decisive to explain both cooperation and assertiveness. Changing costs of no agreement during a lending programme as well as the institutional procedures for programme ratification facilitate the use of these strategies.